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What you gave was the chance that all 10 shots do not miss. However, you haven't factored in the relative magnitude of the outcome, just the chance of the outcome itself.
1.0 hits is the "expected value" for the number of hits with the MG. Simply the sum of P(x)*x. Embedded in that 1.0 is your chance to hit more than once which the MG can do but a single rifle shot cannot. Thus across some number of "rounds" you will score more total hits with the MG than the rifle.
Math aside, pragmatically the MG will also tend to destroy the cover around the alien making them easier to hit if the MG fails to kill them.
This is incorrect.
If a shot has 10% chance to hit, it has 90% or 0,9 chance to miss; The chance of all ten shots missing is 0,9^10 = 0,35;
Thus the chance of at least one shot hitting is 65% - which is NOT, in fact, better than a rifle shot at 65% ;)